When a war breaks out between India and Pakistan, its impact will not only be felt at the borders but also significantly affect India’s key export commodities such as cardamom and pepper, which are part of the spice trade. India currently exports large quantities of cardamom and pepper to Middle Eastern countries like Qatar, Iran, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Due to the war situation, these countries may impose trade barriers or import restrictions on India to reflect their political alignment. As a result, India may face a decline in expected spice revenue. When exports decline, the domestic market will see an increase in supply, which could lead to a decrease in the price of cardamom in the initial stages. However, over time, farmers may look for new markets, and increased domestic demand could lead to a price increase. Similarly, pepper prices may also see fluctuations. Depending on how India is categorized in international markets as a war-risk country, the trust in its food products may diminish. All these consequences will directly impact India’s trade business and the livelihoods of farmers.
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